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July 16 Slight Risk For Storms To Turn Severe Today


July 16 2022

Saturday Morning Update

We have trouble causing rains and storms today. I have a few computer guide models here as a suggestion for timing and location, but I have to emphasize that they are NOT perfect.

I say that because I saw some rain this morning, and there is a difference between HRRR and NAM Models for early afternoon around metro areas. There is further agreement for a larger impulse tonight and tonight that will affect southern Maryland.

Severe Storm Risk

This is the NOAA Outlook, with our region ‘Slight Risk’. This is the lowest level of knowledge, 1 in 5. For comparison, Tuesday’s outlook is level 3.

Of all storms, perhaps 15% can be severe with harmful winds or heavy hail).

Satellite Loop 5:30 AM to 7:30 AM

That line of clouds is our impulse. Timing it in the heat of the day is the program today.

July-16-weather-storm-satellite-saturday-morning

Morning temperature

We have a sign of trouble back in it at the start of the day.

Afternoon temperature

Radar Simulations

These guidelines are not gospel. Both products have their strengths, but I have noticed some activity being stronger and the timing of an hour or more…

NAM 3Km 12 PM to 11 PM

It showed late morning and mid-day rain, then an afternoon focus across southern Maryland.

Stronger impulses arrive at night… arrive in Baltimore at 8 or 9 p.m., where southern Maryland gets it tonight.

July-16-weather-storm-radar-nam

HRRR 1 PM to 11 PM

The difference here is the lack of late morning and midday activity

and

Numerous storms from Hagerstown to Westminster and York between 1 PM to 5 PM.

The deal is the line of rain/storms near Washington at 7 p.m. that pushes into southern Maryland after sunset.

July-16-weather-storm-radar-hrrr

HRRR model

2 PM to 10 PM —-> slider

This model doesn’t have any activity this morning, but will take it for the afternoon and evening. You can see that it has agreed to NAM 3 Km on the line of stronger activity near and south of Washington to Southern Maryland.

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July-16-weather-radar-storm-pm-6

July-16-weather-radar-storm-pm-7

July-16-weather-radar-storm-pm-8

July-16-weather-radar-storm-pm-9

July-16-weather-radar-storm-pm-10

LIVE RADAR/LIGHTNING WIDGET

I think we can track the morning rains that the models are gone…

Storm Reports (preliminary): Tuesday July 12

July 12 Severe Storm Radar Scans: Is There a Tornado or Not?

July 12 Storm Reported in Photos And Videos

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY JULY 16

Normal Lower Baltimore: 67ºF

Record 57ºF in 1954

Baltimore Normal Height: 88ºF

Record 104ºF 1988

Sunday Temperatures

Morning

AFTERNOON

Looking ahead:

7 Day Prophecy

Many storms are likely to be severe on Sunday Night!

Then we watched the high heat and a real heat wave (rare this summer) during the week.

Plan Your Kayaking Day Today

Storm Weather Forecast: June 1 to November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

Prediction From Colorado State University

Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

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*Disclaimer due to frequently asked questions:

I know there are some spelling and grammar typos. I’ve been making a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out in my second year at Cornell. I didn’t hold back from getting my meteorology degree, and first got AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer can sometimes do injustice to make it worse.

All maps and information are accurate. ‘Wordy’ things can be compelling.

No editor can review my work when I need it and it is ready to be sent on a newsworthy timeline.

I accept it and probably confirm that what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.



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