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Britain could reach 40C by mid-July, forecast computer models predict for first time | UK News

Temperatures have yet to reach 40C in the UK but for the first time it has been predicted that computer models show it is possible by mid-July.

According to the latest model, much of the southeast can also hit 39C.

The highest temperature in the UK was recorded on 25 July 2019, when the Cambridge Botanic Garden hit 38.7C.

Prior to that, it was 38.5C, recorded at Faversham in Kent in August 2003.

The prediction was met with a “mixture of shock and surprise” by forecasters, who said it really would never happen-at least this summer.

“No one can remember 40C representing a major global forecast system for the UK,” said Simon Lee, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University.

“Especially if this forecast also predicts temperatures above 39C in a large area of ​​south-east England.

“Because the past warmest days in the UK have only seen a few areas exceed 38C, it’s not like any forecasters have seen before.”

However, it should be noted that this prediction comes from a member of an ensemble forecast system.

Such systems are designed to obtain a variety of possible outcomes by running a model multiple times and making a set of predictions.

Predictions are seen to be more likely when multiple set members have the same.

The modeling predicts that the temperature could reach 40C.  Photo:
The modeling predicts that the temperature could reach 40C. Photo:

So what needs to happen for the UK to hit 40C and why can’t it?

“All factors need to align perfectly for the UK to achieve 40C,” Dr Lee said.

“Even if it is possible, it is not possible, even if the risk is the highest done.

“For example, for the weekend of 16/17 July 2022, most of the predictions are below to the mid -30s, and there are the same number of predictions that show a maximum of no more than 20C as shown in 40C. . “

In order for the UK to see scorching temperatures, the weather setup would have to pump the hottest air from Africa, through Spain and France, and then into the UK.

These include the development of a low-pressure system in western Iberia and its drifting next week, with warm air blowing in the eastern part of the country.

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The UK recorded the hottest day of the year last month

Will we see 40C in the future?

Despite the surprising prediction, it will only be an hour until it happens as the world continues to warm due to climate change.

So, even if the country may not see 40C this summer, it is more likely that record temperatures will hit the UK in the future.

Read more:
The latest weather forecast on Sky News UK
Global temperatures will be the warmest on record in one of the next five years

“Severe weather events and rising temperatures are due to man-made global warming,” said Sky meteorologist Kirsty McCabe.

“New research shows that by the end of the century parts of the UK will see 40C every few years under the high emissions scenario.”

“New research shows that by the end of the century parts of the UK will see 40C every few years under the high emissions scenario.”

The health alert level is elevated

The heat health alert has been raised to Level 3 for the southeast next week as temperatures are expected to reach the lower 30s.

The alert level, triggered by the Met Office, means social services and health care must take specific action to help groups at risk due to the hot weather.

The Met Office says there is a very high probability that temperatures in the southeast and eastern areas of the country could reach at least 30C throughout the week.

Between Wednesday and Friday, there will be due to some patchy rain in central areas and rain in the far north, while it will remain very hot in the far south-east and cooler elsewhere.

The rains are likely to affect the far north on Thursday and Friday, but other areas will be dry and hot.

Watch the Daily Climate Show at 3:30 pm Monday through Friday, and The Climate Show with Tom Heap on Saturday and Sunday at 3:30 pm and 7:30 pm.

All on Sky News, on the Sky News website and app, on YouTube and Twitter.

The show examines how global warming is changing our landscape and highlights solutions to the crisis.

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